Global Terrorism Index 2025

​Results
 
The Sahel: Geopolitics in the Sahel (Part 1)
The GTI 2025 examines the complex interaction between local, regional, and global geopolitical dynamics and their impact on both terrorism and efforts to counter it. The security crisis in the Sahel, which began in Mali in 2012 and has since engulfed neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger, has been shaped by domestic political agendas and their interplay with regional and global geopolitics. Analyses of the Sahel region often present overly simplistic narratives, focusing on the dominance of a single great power, while overlooking the agency of domestic actors and political dynamics, which are often more critical to understanding the broader situation. The following section explores how the interaction between domestic and international politics has shaped the region's security crisis, both historically and in its current state. 
 
The domestic and international politics of the region in most of the post-colonial period has been dominated by France, and a close relationship between the rulers of the Sahelian states and Paris. This has generally manifested in close security cooperation and the domination of French interests in areas like resource management. 
 
Mali
In the security realm, Mali is critical for understanding this dynamic. Since 2012, several French- backed security operations have taken place in the Sahel. These include an EU Training Mission, French-led counterterrorism operations (such as Operation Serval, Operation Barkhane and the Takuba Initiative), and the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). Additionally, the G5 Sahel Initiative and other unilateral security operations, including the involvement of private entities, have been introduced to address insecurity in the region. However, none of these efforts have achieved significant success, and negative sentiment toward France has grown. The perceived failure of these missions to improve the overall security situation fostered the belief that France was more focused on protecting its own interests than serving the interests of Mali. 
 
Withdrawal of Operation Barkhane and MINUSMA 
The 2020 and 2021 coups in Mali significantly shifted the dynamics of the security relationship. Under Colonel Assimi Goita, Mali has pursued what it describes as a ‘sovereigntist’ approach to governance, seeking to rid Mali of foreign interests it believes exploit them. This approach has gained considerable support from segments of the population, particularly younger individuals frustrated by the inability of international actors to address the security crisis, and their perceived exploitation of the region's resources. 
 
This is partly due to the model of French interventions, which prioritised direct involvement with professional soldiers over providing training, tackling corruption in the military or enhancing the capabilities of local forces. The significant increase in negative sentiment shows a sharp increase in the proportion of media articles in Mali expressing negative views about France following the first coup in 2020. IEP has produced the following analysis using machine learning, with source data supplied by ICEWS to show the changing sentiment between Mali and France. ICEWS was discontinued in 2023, a similar dataset POLECAT shows similar trends continuing in 2024. 
 
The 2022 withdrawal of French forces under Operation Barkhane significantly impacted regional security. The responsibility for providing security transitioned from French to Malian Armed Forces, supported by pro-government militias and the Russian Wagner Group, now Africa Corps. Although Barkhane's overall effectiveness in securing Mali was limited, it did manage to maintain control around key urban centres, in collaboration with UN MINUSMA peacekeepers. Many of these areas are now under siege from JNIM and IS-Sahel. 
 
Global Terrorism Index 2025. Institute for Economics & Peace. Sydney, Australia.