Global Terrorism Index 2025

Executive Summary (Part 2)

Competition over natural resources, especially gold, has also played a role in the region’s instability. Niger, the world’s seventh largest uranium producer, has also attracted growing international interest as global powers seek to secure access to critical materials. Russia and China have strengthened their presence in the region, offering security and economic support with fewer conditions than Western counterparts. Meanwhile, France has continued its military withdrawal from West Africa, signalling a broader shift in influence away from the West. 

Russia’s war in Ukraine has had an impact on its operations in sub-Saharan Africa, with some of its resources being diverted towards the war. Russia’s growing involvement in the Sahel has included influence campaigns aimed at reshaping local perceptions of Western governments, including their counterterrorism efforts. These campaigns have materially influenced rising anti-French sentiment in Sahelian countries. 

IS continues to function as a global network, maintaining its presence across multiple regions through affiliated groups. In 2024, it was active in 22 countries across the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Europe. Despite counterterrorism efforts, the group’s ability to coordinate, inspire, and execute attacks highlights its resilience and evolving operational strategies. 

Syria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo were the countries most affected by IS activity in 2024. Syria alone accounted for 369 of the 559 IS attacks globally and resulted in 708 deaths. The instability following the fall of the Assad regime has provided the conditions necessary for terrorist groups to regroup and expand, with IS capitalising on the shifting geopolitical landscape. Since 2020, traditional foreign influence in Syria has diminished, with Russia, China, and Iran reducing their roles while Türkiye emerges as a dominant regional power. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), once a key partner of the US in the fight against IS, now face mounting challenges. Türkiye's opposition to a strengthened SDF, coupled with the potential scaling back of US support, has created conditions that IS could exploit to regain strength. The new US administration’s position on the SDF is still unclear. 

In West Africa, Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) remains a major security concern. Although its activity has declined, the group remains locked in violent conflict with Boko Haram, leading to significant casualties and resource losses. In 2024 terrorism deaths attributed to the chapter declined by 46 per cent to 178. ISWA recorded no deaths in Benin, or Burkina Faso in 2024. These countries are now dominated by JNIM. 

Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISK), originally formed to counter the Taliban, has expanded into one of the most active jihadist groups worldwide. Since its formation in 2015, ISK has steadily extended its reach beyond Afghanistan into Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and Central Asia. In 2024, ISK was responsible for two of the deadliest terrorist attacks, one in Iran and another in Russia. ISK has intensified its recruitment efforts, producing multilingual propaganda targeting South and Central Asia. ISK linguistic reach is particularly notable, with content produced in Pashto, Dari, Arabic, Urdu, Farsi, Uzbek, Tajik, English, and more recently, Russian and Turkish. It also provides remote instruction in tactics, target selection, and weapons procurement from official ISK members. 

In 2024, authorities disrupted 24 publicised plots linked to IS or its affiliates, including five in Israel, four in the US and others in Iran, Türkiye, Germany, France, Sweden and Russia, which included high-profile attempts at the Paris Olympics and a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna. As intelligence agencies rarely disclose such plots, the reported numbers likely represent a fraction of the total. 

Over the next decade AI will be embraced by both terrorist organisations and counter-intelligence agencies. These technologies provide new avenues for terrorist expansion. AI can produce believable deep fake content, provide immersive experiences, better intelligence on targets and produce believable tailored propaganda, faster. This presents significant challenges for counter-terrorism efforts. However, the same technologies also offer opportunities for intelligence agencies to enhance their operations by improving the detection and removal of malicious sites, identifying radicalisation as it occurs in real time, and crafting targeted counter-narratives to reach those at risk. The future of terrorism in part will be decided by AI and its application. 

Technology, particularly artificial intelligence, is rapidly changing the dynamics of how terrorist organisations communicate and recruit. For example, ISK is producing content that ranges from high quality online magazines to AI-enhanced video, including news programs. This enables the quick production of high-quality. localised propaganda. The wide range of countries within which it is active demonstrates its ability to inspire and recruit from diverse nationalities. Encrypted messaging applications have given extremists secure channels for organising and communicating. Platforms like Telegram and Rocket provide private, invitation-only spaces. At the same time, the dark web provides a hub for illicit activities and ideological exchanges, further amplifying exposure and radicalisation risks. 

Despite a decline in total terrorism deaths, the findings of the GTI 2025 underscore the shifting nature of global terrorism. As the in- tensity of attacks increases, new epicentres emerge, and geopolitical tensions shape security landscapes, terrorism remains a highly adaptive and persistent threat. 

​Global Terrorism Index 2025. Institute for Economics & Peace. Sydney, Australia.