Global Terrorism Index 2025

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The Sahel: Geopolitics in the Sahel (Part 2)
In June 2023, the UN Security Council terminated MINUSMA's mission in Mali after the Malian government withdrew its support. Established in 2013, MINUSMA struggled with security provision outside its base areas, burdened by a massive operational area and infrastructural challenges. The phased withdrawal of peacekeepers, completed in December 2023, directly escalated violent conflict in areas previously under UN control. 
 
Fierce battles for control of former UN bases emerged, involving Malian forces, Africa Corps mercenaries, Tuareg rebels, and JNIM. The violence in Kidal in November 2023 marked some of the most severe active conflict between government and rebel forces since the 2015 peace deal. The agreement fully collapsed in January 2024, leading to escalating conflict in northern Mali. 
 
Security threats persist, from jihadists who have become entrenched across the country and a resurgent rebel conflict in the north. In August 2023, the UN panel of experts on Mali declared that IS-Sahel had doubled the amount of territory they controlled in the country, while JNIM had continued to expand operations. The collapse of the Algiers peace agreement and the surge in violence, particularly in urban areas of central and northern Mali, may create further opportunities for jihadist groups to expand their influence and consolidate control in the region. JNIM’s attack on the military academy and air force base in Bamako in September 2024 showed a high level of frailty within the military regime’s internal security.Although large-scale attacks in urban areas have yet to materialise, a security vacuum in densely populated urban centres could further exacerbate the country's security crisis. 
 
Russian involvement in the Sahel has significantly increased, with the region becoming an important theatre for their competition with the West. The Russian government, through their private military contractor Africa Corps, formerly the Wagner Group, deployed to Mali in December 2021 and operate alongside Malian forces in counterterrorism operations. Russian PMC troops are also potentially involved in operations against jihadist groups in Burkina Faso. The record of Russia and Africa Corp as security partners in the region is on a par with prior missions. 
 
The Wagner Group, now Africa Corps, has been less effective in providing security and has been involved in mining and the extractive industry. Africa Corps’ approach appears to be more appealing to the military regime than UN or French models, which focused on population-centred protection of civilians. Reportedly, the brutal counterinsurgency approach employed by Wagner, now Africa Corps, has brought significant approval from Malian troops and parts of the population, who were disillusioned by the failures of Western interventions.
 
Following the failed uprising and the death of former Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian PMCs have transitioned to the Africa Corps brand. While their operations in the region continue, they have been significantly impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Opinion polling of Malian citizens in January 2024 was overall highly positive of both the junta’s approach to security and relations with Russia, the latter with 82 per cent approval. It is unclear whether this positive sentiment has continued. In July 2024 at least 84 Russian troops were killed after being ambushed by Tuareg rebels on the Mali-Algeria border. Offensives in Northern Mali have largely failed to improve the security situation and reports suggest many Russian troops are becoming less willing to participate in high-risk missions, and are increasingly withdrawing to the areas around their bases. There are only around 1,000 Africa corps troops believed to be actively deployed in Mali, down from 2,000 and substantially less than the combined 13,000 UN peacekeepers and French troops that were deployed prior to the withdrawal of both missions. 
 
Global Terrorism Index 2025. Institute for Economics & Peace. Sydney, Australia.