Global Terrorism Index 2025

Key Findings (Part 3)

The Sahel
The Sahel accounted for 51 per cent of global terrorism deaths in 2024. 

Conflict deaths in the Sahel reached their highest level since the inception of the GTI, surpassing 25,000 for the first time. 

Weak governance, ethnic tensions, and ecological degradation have fuelled terrorism, worsened by transnational jihadist growth and geopolitical competition. 

Terrorist groups such as JNIM continue to expand carrying out attacks in coastal West Africa, with Togo recording its worst year for terrorism in 2024 since the inception of the GTI. 

The Alliance of Sahelian States, comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, are changing alliances by removing Western involvement in security and economic sectors and withdrawing from ECOWAS. Instead, the alliance has strengthened ties with Russia and China, which provide support with fewer conditions attached. 

In August 2023 the UN panel of experts on Mali declared that IS-Sahel had doubled the amount of territory they controlled in the country, while JNIM had continued to expand operations. 

Gold is increasingly a critical source of revenue for state and non-state armed actors alike across the Sahel, impacting local and international relations. 

Niger is the 7th largest producer of uranium and can be an important source for countries such as China who wish to expand their nuclear power plants. However, terror attacks in Niger have reached their highest levels on record. 

Russia is conducting influence operations across the continent, particularly in the Sahel, often framing them around Western failures in counterterrorism. Outside these high-profile and visible efforts, China has been steadily building economic and political influence. 

The wars in Ukraine and Syria have directly influenced the conflict in the Sahel. Ukraine has supported rebels opposing Russian-backed regimes, while the collapse
of the Assad regime affects Russia's control of a key logistical hub, potentially increasing the importance of its influence in Mali and other regions. 

Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk prompted Russia to withdraw military advisors from Burkina Faso, highlighting the delicate balancing act Moscow faces in its African operations. 

Russian information campaigns are actively shaping sentiment across the Sahel, influencing attitudes toward both Russia and former colonial power France. In Burkina Faso, the rise in Russian influence has corresponded with an increase in negative sentiment toward France in media coverage. 

​The collapse of the 2015 Algiers peace agreement has worsened an already dire security situation in Mali. JNIM appear to be taking advantage, staging symbolically damaging attacks on government targets in Bamako in September 2024. 
 
Global Terrorism Index 2025. Institute for Economics & Peace. Sydney, Australia.