Global Terrorism Index 2025

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Trends in Terrorism

​TRENDS SINCE 2007
In 2007 and 2008, most terrorist activity was concentrated in Iraq and Afghanistan in response to the US and its allies’ interventions. This impacted Pakistan, leading to an escalation in terrorist activities from 2008 to 2013. The Arab Spring and the rise of Islamic State (IS) triggered a surge in terrorism across the Middle East from 2011 to 2013, particularly in Syria and Iraq, while the growth of Boko Haram led to terrorism increasing in Nigeria. At its peak in 2015, almost 11,000 people were killed in terrorist attacks in a single year.
 
From 2016, deaths from terrorism began to decline. Iraq saw a marked reduction in terrorism starting in 2017, whereas Afghanistan experienced an increase in terrorism from 2016 to 2021, followed by a notable decline in 2022 after the Taliban's ascension to power. During the same period, the Sahel region saw a significant rise in terrorist incidents and deaths, particularly in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Somalia. Since 2009 both deaths and attacks have risen by roughly tenfold.
 
2022 marked the lowest global death toll from terrorism since 2007, but in 2023, deaths surged to levels comparable to those seen in 2017. This increase, the first since 2020, was primarily due to the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel, which resulted in over 1,200 fatalities and the capture of more than 200 soldiers and civilians. Deaths decreased by 13 per cent in 2024, primarily due to the surge in deaths caused by the Hamas attack in 2023. However, without this attack, deaths would have risen slightly in 2024 by half a per cent, reaching their highest level since 2017.
 
The Sahel remains the epicentre of terrorism, despite a decline in deaths in 2024 and renewed violence in MENA. The region accounted for 51 per cent of total terrorism deaths globally in 2024, compared to 48 per cent in 2023 and just one per cent in 2007. Niger, Chad and Nigeria saw increases in deaths over the past year, with Niger and Chad recording rises of over 80 per cent. However, these increases were offset by declines of more than 20 per cent in Burkina Faso, Mali, Cameroon, and Senegal, leading to an overall four per cent decline in deaths across the Sahel in 2024. Despite this reduction, 2024 recorded the second-highest death toll in the Sahel since the inception of the Index.
 
Globally, deaths from terrorism have declined by almost a third since the peak of terrorism in 2015, with Iraq and Nigeria recording the largest decreases. Deaths in Nigeria peaked in 2014 at 2,101, before declining to 392 deaths in 2022, the lowest level since 2011. Deaths from terrorism in Nigeria increased in the two subsequent years, rising by 34 per cent in 2023 to 533 and 565 in 2024. The resurgence of violence in Nigeria continues to be driven by intensified conflict between ISWA and Boko Haram, with both groups responsible for almost 60 per cent of deaths in 2024 in the country.
 
Deaths from terrorism in Iraq have fallen by 99 per cent since their peak in 2007. This is indicative of a broader trend in the MENA region, where terrorist activities have lessened, especially over the last eight years. Contributing factors include the de-escalation of the Syrian civil war, IS’ operational shift from MENA to the Sahel region, and enhanced counterterrorism cooperation at both national and international levels.
 
While attacks and deaths have declined by more than half since 2007 in the MENA region, the late 2023 resurgence of violence in Israel and Palestine has had a ripple effect on conflict in the region. Israel responded to the October 2023 Hamas attack by invading southern Lebanon, due to Hezbollah’s support for Hamas. This resurgence in conflict coincided with the fall of the Assad regime, leaving Syria in a power vacuum. Experts warn that the regime’s collapse could lead to a resurgence of IS in Syria, prompting the US to launch strikes on IS strongholds immediately after Assad fled in December.
 
While a resurgence in IS activity in Syria is anticipated, recent trends indicate that IS and its affiliates continue to shift their focus to sub-Saharan Africa and more specifically Sahelian countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali, Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon. The Sahel has become increasingly more violent during this period, with deaths increasing 30 times between 2007 and 2024. Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali recorded the largest increases, 1,532, 896 and 602 more deaths respectively in 2024 than in 2007. Groups such as IS and JNIM continue to wage a violent campaign in the region, capitalising on political instability and organised crime.
 
Terrorism has become more concentrated over the past few years. Despite total deaths from terrorism falling by 13 per cent, the number of countries that recorded at least one death from terrorism remained static, from 46 in 2023 to 45 in 2024. There are 65 countries with a GTI score of zero, meaning that they have not experienced a single incident of terrorism in the past five years. By contrast, in 2015 when terrorism was most widespread, there were only 57 countries with a GTI score of zero. Of the 163 countries in the GTI, only 25 have not recorded a single terrorist incident since 2007.
 
Global Terrorism Index 2025. Institute for Economics & Peace. Sydney, Australia.