Global Terrorism Index 2025

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Islamic State and Affiliates: Summary
 
Definitions of Islamic State (IS) vary. In this report, IS is defined as a global jihadist organisation that operates as a decentralised network of affiliates. However, not all IS chapters are categorised in the Terrorism Tracker. The attribution of attacks and deaths to Islamic State and its affiliates can be challenging to determine, due to the shifting nature of affiliations and the evolving dynamics of the group's regional branches. As IS originally rose to prominence in Iraq and Syria, the group tends to be most associated with – and sometimes treated as synonymous with – Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). But in the Terrorism Tracker, “Islamic State” is also used to denote events ascribed to the network that have been carried out outside of Iraq and Syria. The attacks replicate IS tactics; however, they cannot be linked to any one affiliate group. In 2024, for example, there were a total 22 countries around the world with incidents attributed to “Islamic State.” This section provides an overview of affiliate branches of IS: Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISK), Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), IS Sahel Province (ISS), IS West Africa (ISWA), IS Sinai, IS Libya, IS Somalia (ISS), IS Mozambique (ISM) and IS Central Africa (ISCA). 
 
Roughly 48 per cent of terrorism deaths in 2024 have not been attributed to any group. IEP has developed a machine learning model which apportions these deaths to various groups. Based on these findings IS is likely to be responsible for an additional 15,000 deaths between 2007 and 2024. 
 
IS and its affiliates were responsible for over 4,000 deaths in 2016, the peak of its deadly operations. Over the next three years, the number of deaths dropped substantially, reaching as low as 1,666 in 2019, and deaths have not exceeded 2,500 since then. Iraq has been the most affected country by IS attacks, with a total of 9,088 deaths since 2007, followed by Syria with 3,636 fatalities, and Afghanistan with 2,686 deaths. In 2024, deaths from IS attacks fell to their lowest level since 2019, dropping by 12 percent compared to the previous year. Syria recorded the most IS attributed deaths in 2024, with 708 deaths, followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) with 299 deaths, Nigeria with 159 and Russia with 148 deaths. 
 
While the number of IS deaths peaked in 2016, the number of attacks attributed to IS and its affiliates reached its highest level in 2021. Between 2007 and 2014, attacks were relatively limited, with 21 incidents in 2007. However, 2015 marked a sharp increase, with 390 attacks recorded. Attacks rose to 815 in 2018 and remained elevated over the next several years, eventually peaking at 867 attacks in 2021. Attacks increased for the first time since the peak in 2024, when 559 IS attacks were recorded, six per cent more than the prior year. 
 
The rise in attacks despite declining deaths suggests a shift toward smaller, less coordinated operations, often relying on local sympathisers rather than centralised command. 
 
For instance, Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) recorded its highest number of attacks in 2020, with 90 incidents, before declining in subsequent years. ISK saw a significant surge in activity, peaking in 2021 with 189 attacks. Islamic State Sinai Province (IS-SP), although relatively less active, remained a persistent threat, with notable activity in 2016 and 2018. 
 
Global Terrorism Index 2025. Institute for Economics & Peace. Sydney, Australia.