Global Terrorism Index 2025

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Terrorist Groups (Part 2): Islamic State (IS)
Islamic State (IS) is a Sunni extremist group which formed as an Al-Qaeda affiliate in Iraq and Syria in 1999. Following the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, IS participated in the Iraqi insurgency. In 2014, the group declared itself a worldwide caliphate. IS primarily adheres to a global jihadist ideology, following an anti-Western interpretation of Islam and promotes violence against those who do not align with its ideology, including other forms of Islam. In this section, IS comprises Islamic State, Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISK), Islamic State Sinai Province (IS-SP), Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Islamic State West Africa (ISWA). 

The original aim of IS was to establish a Salafist-oriented Islamic state spanning Iraq, Syria and other areas of the Levant. It then expanded into other parts of the world through affiliate groups to promote their ideology, including ISK in Afghanistan and Pakistan and later the Islamic State West Africa (ISWA), which operates in the Sahel region. IS and its affiliates exploited tensions between Sunni and Shia Muslims in Iraq and Syria, using Sunni disenfranchisement to capture and consolidate its control over areas of Iraq and Syria. IS adopted similar tactics in the Sahel, taking advantage of political instability and local grievances as a means of recruiting followers. 

The overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has resulted in a significant power vacuum in Syria, of which IS has taken advantage, increasing attacks by almost 50 per cent.Although HTS actively opposes IS and other terrorist groups, its limited alliances with major international powers may hinder the implementation of effective counterterrorism measures within Syria. The instability has created an opportunity for IS to exploit the crisis, potentially allowing the group to regain influence in the region after years of reduced activity. In response, the United States deployed additional temporary forces to Syria in December 2024 to address this emerging threat and prevent IS from re-establishing a foothold.

Changes since 2023 
IS remained the world’s deadliest terrorist group in 2024, despite deaths attributed to the group and its affiliates falling by ten per cent to 1,805. Confirmed attacks by IS and its affiliates represented 16 per cent of all attacks globally in 2024. However, the actual number is likely to be much higher, as a high percentage of attacks are not attributed to any group and frequently occur in regions where IS operates. The total number of confirmed IS attacks increased from 525 in 2023 to 559 in 2024, an increase of six per cent. 

IS was active in 22 countries in 2024, one more than in 2023, with attacks occurring in six of the nine GTI regions: Asia- Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), sub-Saharan Africa, Russia and Eurasia, and South Asia. This marks the highest number of countries affected by IS attacks since 2020, when attacks were recorded in 30 countries. 

Syria was the country most affected by IS terrorist attacks for the second consecutive year, recording 369 attacks in 2024, an increase of almost 50 per cent from the 250 recorded in 2023. The most deaths from IS attacks also occurred in Syria for the third consecutive year, with 708 deaths in 2024, a third higher than the 534 in 2023. While IS activity remained static in most other regions, the number of attacks fell significantly in Nigeria and Iraq, falling by 75 and 56 per cent in 2024. IS became slightly less lethal in its attacks, from an average of 3.8 deaths per attack in 2023 to 3.2 in 2024. 

The deadliest attack attributed to IS in 2024, in March, was a mass shooting of civilians in the Crocus City Hall music venue on the outskirts of Moscow. Using guns, knives and incendiary devices, the attackers killed at least 144 civilians and injured at least 551 more. ISK claimed responsibility for the attack. It is also the fourth deadliest attack attributed to any terror group in 2024. 

In 2024, IS activity in sub-Saharan Africa declined considerably, with deaths dropping by 44 per cent, from 1,185 in 2023 to 664 in 2024. The number of attacks mirrored this trend, falling by almost a third, from 148 in 2023 to 100 in 2024. Burkina Faso, Nigeria and Niger each recorded reductions of over 100 deaths attributed to IS attacks compared to the previous year. However, Nigeria and Niger experienced a notable increase in deaths not attributed to any specific group. Given IS activity in the region, it is likely that the group was responsible for at least some of these attacks. 

IS maintained a persistent presence across several regions, including Europe, South Asia, Asia-Pacific and MENA, with the number of incidents and deaths in these areas remaining consistent with the previous year. However, escalating tensions in Syria and the broader Middle East may contribute to increased activity by the group and its affiliates in the near future. 

Tactics favoured by Islamic State 
The most common target for IS attacks continues to be the military, representing almost half of all IS attacks in 2024. However, civilians surpassed the military in casualties from the group’s attacks, comprising over a third of such deaths. Armed attacks remained IS’s favoured tactic for the sixth consecutive year, followed by bombings. In 2024, there were 397 armed attacks, resulting in 1,309 people killed, a decline compared to the 1,605 deaths from armed attacks in 2023. 

​Global Terrorism Index 2025. Institute for Economics & Peace. Sydney, Australia.