The Global Risks Report 2025: A World of Growing Divisions

The Path to 2027

The global outlook for 2027 is one of increased cynicism among survey respondents, with a high proportion of respondents to the GRPS 2024-25 anticipating turbulence (31%), a four percentage- point increase since last year’s edition. There is also a two percentage-point year-on-year increase to 5% in the number of respondents who are anticipating a stormy outlook – the most alarming of the five categories respondents were asked to select from – over the next two years. 

The top risk for 2027 according to survey respondents is Misinformation and disinformation – for the second year in a row, since it was introduced into the GRPS risk list in 2022-23. Respondent concern has remained high following a year of “super elections,” with this risk also a top concern across a majority of age categories and stakeholder groups. Moreover, it is becoming more difficult to differentiate between AI- and human- generated Misinformation and disinformation. AI tools are enabling a proliferation in such information in the form of video, images, voice or text. Leading creators of false or misleading content include state actors in some countries.

In a year that has seen the mass rollout of developments in AI and considerable experimentation with AI tools by companies and individuals, concerns about Adverse outcomes of AI technologies is low in the risk ranking. In fact, it has slightly declined in the two-year outlook, with the risk now ranking #31 compared with #29 in last year’s report. However, complacency around the risks of such technologies should be avoided given the fast-paced change in the field of AI and its increasing ubiquity. In this report we highlight how AI models are a factor in the relationship between technology and polarization. 

Respondents also express unease over Cyber espionage and warfare, which is #5 in the two-year ranking, echoing concerns outlined in the World Economic Forum's 2024 Chief Risk Officers Outlook, where 71% of Chief Risk Officers expressed concern about the impact of Cyber risk and criminal activity (money laundering, cybercrime etc.) severely impacting their organizations. The rising likelihood of threat actor activity and more sophisticated technological disruption were noted as particular concerns.

Elevated cyber risk perceptions are one aspect of a broader environment of heightened geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions, which is reflected in the two-year ranking of State-based armed conflict moving up from #5 in last year’s report to #3 now. The risk of further destabilizing consequences in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan are likely to be amplifying respondents’ concerns. In a world that has been seeing an increasing number of armed conflicts for a decade, national security considerations are increasingly dominating government agendas. 

Overall, the GRPS risks with some of the sharpest rises in ranking compared to the previous year are geostrategic in nature. Biological, chemical, or nuclear weapons or hazards (#23) and Geoeconomic confrontation (#9) are up eight and five positions, respectively, since the GRPS 2023-24. Private-sector concern with the two-year outlook for Geo-economic confrontation has moved up from last year’s edition of the report, where it was not a top 10 risk; it now is #6. There is also concern among both governments and academia, who rank this risk #9 and #10, respectively. 

Last year, two economic risks – Inflation and Economic downturn (recession, stagnation) –were new entrants in the top 10 ranking. Concerns around both have since subsided; in this year’s two-year risk ranking, there are no economic risks in the top 10. Inflation, which was #7 last year, has fallen to #29, with a similar decline for Economic downturn, which was #9 last year and is now #19. No stakeholder group selected either Inflation or Economic downturn as a top 10 risk, although there is ongoing concern about Debt among government stakeholders (at #7), and Crime and illicit economic activity among international organizations, private-sector and government respondents (#6, #7 and #8, respectively). Across stakeholders in the aggregate, however, there are some sharp upticks in economic risk perceptions, with Crime and illicit economic activity increasing 17 positions to #11, and Concentration of strategic resources at #12, up 12 positions from last year. 

This overall mixed picture for economic risk perceptions is not mirrored in societal risk perceptions, which have risen and feature prominently in the two-year risk landscape. Inequality (wealth, income) is #7 and Societal polarization is even higher, at #4. Involuntary migration or displacement (#8), and Erosion of human rights and/or civic freedoms (#10) are also in the top 10. Lack of economic opportunity or unemployment has increased 17 positions from last year’s edition and is now #13. Inequality (wealth, income) is perceived as the most central, interconnected risk of all, with significant potential to both trigger and be influenced by other risks. The importance ascribed to this set of societal risks suggests that social stability will be fragile over the next two years, weakening trust and diminishing our collective sense of shared values. This is being felt not only within societies but also between societies and governments: the perceived risk of Censorship and surveillance (#16) is up five places compared to last year. 

Fractures across societal lines are also relevant to environmental risks, which have become a more divisive issue in domestic politics in many countries in recent years. On aggregate across GRPS respondents, concerns about environmental risks are high over the two-year horizon. Respondents list Extreme weather events as the #2 most severe risk for 2027, with Pollution at #6, up four places from last year’s report. While Extreme weather events remain a persistent concern year-on-year – the risk was also ranked #2 last year – the uptick in Pollution demonstrates that environmental risks that are often perceived as long-term threats are starting to be perceived with more certainty by respondents as short-term realities, as their effects become more apparent. Climate change is also an underlying driver of several other risks that rank high. For example, Involuntary migration or displacement is a leading concern, at #8. 

​Reference: The Global Risks Report 2025 20th Edition. World Economic Forum.